The Rwandan Hutu militia called the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) attacked and burned dozens of villages and towns in Masisi and Lubero territories (North Kivu) as well as in Kalehe territory (South Kivu) in recent weeks, committing numerous deliberate killings, rapes, and acts of looting. Blaming government military operations, the FDLR deliberately targeted civilians, used them as human shields, and accused civilians of having betrayed them. According to witnesses and victims interviewed by Human Rights Watch, the FDLR have been implicated in the killings of at least 154 civilians since January 23.In the meantime, the Congolese leadership has decided to go ahead with a $9 billion Chinese mining and infrastructure program, which will bring much-needed roads, railways, schools and hospitals to the country. In return, the Chinese are acquiring billions of dollars worth of copper and cobalt reserves needed to feed the country's export-driven economy. It would appear that China hasn't entirely abandoned its 'non-interference' principle just yet.
Chinese shops in Argentina
Currently, there are 60,000 to 70,000 Chinese in Argentina. Only about 15,000 to 20,000 of those reportedly identify as Taiwanese. Though the Taiwanese were the first to arrive in Argentina in the 1980s, their population has dwindled in recent years as many left, with a steep drop in numbers occurring after Argentina’s economic crisis of 2001. Meanwhile, the number of mainland Chinese immigrants has proliferated, in step with China’s growing investment in the country and the rest of Latin America.In Argentina, there are about 4,200 Chinese-run supermarkets and their numbers are growing. A 2008 statistic reported that approximately 14 new Chinese-run supermarkets open up each month.
Mais oui, nous aimons la Chine....
Chinese propaganda finds its way to Malawi (likely not for the first time...)
North Korea launches missile; China shrugs shoulders
is funded through credit from Beijing, which fears an influx of North Korean refugees if economic conditions in the isolated, poverty-ridden state worsen.
Just because....
If Timothy Garton Ash says it's true...
can you continue to combine command politics with market economics? Or, to frame it more positively: can you achieve a controlled, step-by-step evolution of this political system into one that is more responsive, transparent, accountable and therefore durable?
But what if he's asked the wrong question? What if the burning question for China is, for example, demographics? It's the fastest aging society in the world. It will indeed grow old before it gets rich. Or what if the question is environmental? I don't need to go into details here, you know how bad it is. Or social? China's crime problem is serious and getting worse. There's a nationwide shortage of trust. Or health-related? AIDS continues to grow; there's avian flu. Or economic? Yes, China has done miraculously so far. But exports are down significantly. Can they weather this Western-induced crisis?There is a triumphalism coming from Beijing that Garton Ash's piece notes. The recent attack on the dollar; the obnoxious musings of Vice President and Anointed Successor Xi Junping while he was in Mexico. Some of the bluster is justified. But some of it also masks a deep insecurity about what's next for China. We need to remember that what we often think are the big questions for that great country aren't the right ones at all.
China continues to extend its reach into Latin America, world, etc.
First, as Xinhua reports, the Argentines can essentially use the RMB as extra cash to pay for imports. But one might note that, since the Yuan is not a convertible currency, the money can only be used to purchase goods from -- you guessed it -- China, potentially giving a boost the Dragon's ailing export sector.
The other reason for the swap seems more strategic, especially in conjunction with other currency trades that China has very quietly signed with Malaysia, Hong Kong, South Korea, Belarus, and Indonesia over the past three months. As the Financial Times puts it:
Economists...see Beijing's currency swap deals as pieces in a jigsaw designed to promote wider international use of the renminbi, starting with making it more acceptable for trade and aiming at establishing it as a reserve currency in Asia, something that would also enhance China's political clout."
Argentina’s central bank president, Martin Redrado, was quick to point out that the deal is a contingency plan; the country doesn’t need it at the moment. And, another asterisk behind the deal:
“The fact that China represents such a small share of Argentina’s total trade (less than 12 percent) suggests limited impact on FX, but is an important political gimmick at this time (convertibility will remain an issue),” RBS wrote in a research note issued on Tuesday.Gimmick or no, Zhou proved that even in an international setting like the IDB summit, China will look for ways to extend its reach (and currency priorities).
Youth Forum on China-Africa Relations at Yale
An overstated withdrawal
The New York Times ran a story last week touting the steady decline of Chinese investment across the African continent:
As global commodity prices have plummeted and several of China's African partners have stumbled deeper into chaos, China has backed away from some of its riskiest and most aggressive plans, looking for the same guarantees that Western companies have long sought for their investments: economic and political stability.
Though I've touched on this issue before, it appears that it is one worth returning to. While the economic crisis has, indeed, adversely affected Chinese exports and subsequently many key African sectors, this does not spell doom for the continent anymore than it signals a mass withdrawal of Chinese investments, as the NYTimes appears to suggest.
The most recent issue of Africa-Asia Confidential does an especially brilliant job of driving this point home:
Anecdotal evidence suggests that some firms could be trying to shift unwanted goods to new markets in Africa. That might mean more choice and lower prices for African consumers. 'We don't see so many African traders coming in as before but demand for Chinese corporations is extraordinary. We see so many Chinese merchants and small companies sending people to Africa, many for the first time,' said Lily Tang, China Manager for Kenya Airways, which flies from Guangzhou to the continent.
Indeed, while some Chinese companies might be fleeing, the general trend is seemingly one of firm restructuring. China is continuing to invest in natural resource sectors across the continent, with projects picking up now that the weather is improving. Small-scale entrepreneurs are likewise continuing to pursue independent ventures in states across the region, peddling cheap goods in African markets. Though we may be witnessing a slowdown in such trends, it is hardly the end of 'China in Africa,' as such.
An additional point worth mentioning, one initially observed by Africa Works, is that the NYTimes story is based solely on the country of Guinea:
a country that has little going for it economically or socially. In more robust countries such as Kenya, Ghana and Zambia, Chinese investment is part of a mix of foreign capital. With growing cities, many African countries represent a rare opportunity to take advantage of new consumer demand.
It will, of course, be curious to observe how things unfold as the economic crisis progresses, but for the time being there really is no need for dramatic tales of complete Chinese withdrawal. Really.
[Photo credit: NYTimes]
Pentagon report on Chinese military forces
The secret behind China's global rise, #45870458
Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann is clueless about the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency. In fact, it seems she’s clueless about what a reserve currency is. That’s why, in reaction to China’s SDR proposal, she’s introducing legislation to “bar the dollar from being replaced by any foreign currency.” And apparently a lot of people are similarly confused and need a quick explanation of the difference between legal tender and currency reserves.
If Rep. Bachmann’s office needs some assistance with international economics, I’d be happy to provide some advice over the phone at a reasonable price.
Having had my fair share of economic discussions with Jonathan, I can readily vouch for his expertise.
Having had their fair share of international gaffes in recent weeks, too (see here and here, for instance), I would urge U.S. politicians to do engage in greater background research before making future pronouncements (pertaining to anything, really) or attempting gestures of goodwill. Unfortunately, things in this department do not appear especially promising: standing in front of the Basilica of Our Lady of Guadalupe, which was "miraculously imprinted by Mary on the tilma, or cloak, or Juan Diego in 1531," Hilary Clinton on her recent trip to Mexico turned to the priest who was showing her the Basilica and asked, "Who painted it?"
Quite frankly I don't know how anyone is to take the U.S. seriously if such blunders continue to be made. Of course such slips of the tongue occur frequently in the wonderful world that is international relations, but one would hope that politicians in the world's superpower would be sufficiently knowledgeable on what really are commonplace matters. Even I understand the difference between legal tender and currency reserves, and I will be the first to admit that economics is not my forte.
While on the surface such slips may not appear to be a big deal, they do go a long way in discrediting the United States in the global arena, and are likewise utilized by leaders in countries who are interested in asserting their superiority over (or equality to) the U.S. in doing precisely that. China is no exception.
[HT: Andrew Sullivan]
One China, indeed
A nation that freed itself from an apartheid government, South Africa would seem to have much in common with leading liberation figures like the Dalai Lama, who speaks for about 5.4 million Tibetans, who live under Chinese rule.But as a nation that depends heavily on Chinese markets for buying its rich natural resources, South Africa has given the appearance of having chosen commerce over principle. It's a decision that could cost South Africa its moral voice on the global stage.
Todd Moss, quoting Nelson Mandela's grandson, organizer of the peace conference which was to host the Dalai Lama, observes:
This rejection by the government, to not issue a visa, is really tainting our efforts at democracy. It’s a sad day for South Africa. It’s a sad day for Africa…Where are we heading in the future?
Straight into the open arms of the Chinese, I would argue. Indeed, they must be quite pleased with themselves in Beijing, what with a growing number of countries wrapped around their finger - in Africa and beyond. While many countries are quick to pledge their allegiance to the Chinese for purely economic purposes, in some cases the reasoning is rooted in greater historical motivations, as appears to be the case in El Salvador:
The FMLN has never forgotten that ARENA founder Roberto D'Aubuisson, who organized and led the death squads which tortured and killed thousands of civilians and who directly ordered the assassination of Archbishop of San Salvador Monsignor Oscar Romero on March 24, 1980 that sparked the civil war, was trained in "police techniques" in Taiwan.
Moreover, unlike Nicaragua, Guatemala or Paraguay, Taiwan has been unable to develop solid political dialogue with the FMLN even under DPP President Chen Shui-bian.
Dual recognition appears to be out of the question for El Salvador, handing another diplomatic win (of sorts) to the Chinese. Indeed, it's important to recall that for the leaders in Beijing, national unity is of utmost importance, second only to economic growth. And for developing countries struggling to sustain their growth rates in the face of an ongoing economic crisis, acknowledging Chinese national integrity is a small price to pay for the goods handed in return. While scholars and policymakers alike sometimes tend to bypass the centrality of the "One China" principle, it remains a central tenet of Chinese foreign policy, not to be overlooked.
As for South Africa awarding Castro the Order of Companions of O.R. Tambo in Gold award... your guess is as good as mine.
A(nother) brief time out
How China sees the world: A lesson from The Economist
In the ocean immediately beyond the city are a few islands of particular interest to China:
- Japan: the old rival, whose rapid modernisation preceded China’s, but now eclipsed and reduced to a few harmless islands.
- Taiwan: similarly superseded by China’s massive economic progress, but still relevant as the rival claimant to be China’s ‘legitimate’ government. Even more repulsive to mainland China is a competing strand of current Taiwanese politics, striving for ‘independence’ and thus eschewing the ‘One China’ policy still officially espoused by both the communist mainland and nationalist Taiwan.
- Hong Kong: the former British crown colony that was handed back to China in 1997 and which has been allowed a degree of autonomy unthinkable elsewhere in China (e.g. Tibet) under an agreement often referred to as ‘One Country, Two Systems’, whereby Hong Kong was allowed to retain its capitalist system and its civil liberties, including inchoate democratic institutions.
- Spratly Islands: a sprawling archipelago of over 600 islets, atols and reefs in the South China Sea, between Vietnam and the Philippines, with barely 5 square kilometers of dry land between them. Because of their strategic location, the Spratlys, or parts of them, are claimed and partly occupied by China, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia - and as such are a flashpoint waiting to happen.
Across a narrow representation of the Pacific Ocean lies the continent apparently most on China’s mind - America. And especially, apart from a tiny slice labelled Canada and a small appendage being dug up for minerals called South America, the United States. The US is a crumbling empire, with the Statue of Liberty clutching a begging bowl and holding up a sign saying: Please give generously. Next to some shacks is a sign saying Foreclosure Sale (a reference to the house repossessions that are symptomatic of the credit crunch which triggered the present economic recession). Wall Street is a fault almost splitting the US in two.
Europe is much smaller and more irrelevant than America, in the ocean beyond it. All that distinguishes it are Prada and Hermes, two brands of luxury fashion accessories, and presumably very popular with the wealthy Chinese elite - suggesting that Europe is only interesting to China as a glorified shopping mall.
Next to Europe is Africa, equally distant from China, but at least decked out with some of the implements of industry, referring to the large investments China is making in Africa, benefiting the poorest continent with new infrastructure and providing China with access to much-needed raw materials for its burgeoning industry.
Human rights through your local church
I have spent the last two weeks working with a team of Saddleback lawyers who are implementing this impressive program. Having met with Supreme Court and High Court judges, Ministry of Justice officials, and over sixty of the top Rwandan pastors in the country, I am convinced that in a country where 82 percent of the population are Christians, there is no better vehicle for educating the general populace about human rights than the local church. At the invitation of President Kagame, Saddleback Church has been sending hundreds of volunteer professionals–doctors, nurses, lawyers, psychologists, etc.–to work with local churches to address Rwanda’s most pressing problems.
On the legal front, top government officials have identified three central problems: intra-family land grabbing, domestic violence, and sexual crimes. To address those problems, lawyers from Saddleback Church have drafted a human rights manual for local pastors they can use to educate their members about those issues. They have started with the issue of land grabbing, and future manuals will be developed that focus on domestic violence and sexual crimes.
[...] It is an impressive project. The result will be a manual that will be sent to thousands of Rwandan pastors with information on the rights of women and children and information on legal resources for families who struggle with land grabbing. Prevention is the principal objective, but for those who are in the midst of a land grabbing dispute, the manual encourages local pastors to work with government legal aid clinics, the National University of Rwanda, and the Christian human rights NGO International Justice Mission to intervene.
Smart power in U.S-China (and Africa) relations
The United States can do more to collaborate with China in the developing world, particularly in the areas of energy, health, agriculture, and peacekeeping. If such collaboration were to take place, the United States and China would find themselves working toward a greater global public good.Perhaps of particular interest to readers of this blog will be the chapter on 'China's Soft Power in Africa,' written by Jennifer Cooke. Though much of Cooke's analysis has now been relegated to mere common knowledge (e.g. the Chinese are foremost interested in access to resources; much of China's loan money is given in the form of concessional loans; the Chinese government emphasizes the 'win-win' nature of Sino-African partnerships, etc.), she does an interesting job of comparing Chinese engagements in the continent with current U.S. engagements.
Where should foreign aid be directed?
Sustainable fashion (and a congratulations!)
Marking their territory
Analysts speculate as to Chinese intentions, but in a sense it really does not matter what Beijing is trying to accomplish. Its conduct is simply unacceptable. Washington, however, seeks to establish “dialogue” with China’s generals, admirals, and officials as if their belligerent acts are the result of the lack of contact. It is simply ludicrous for the Obama White House to claim that the Chinese want to “strengthen cooperation” or build a “positive and constructive” relationship after engaging in such truculent behavior.And it is wrong to suggest that incidents can be avoided in the future if we only increase the level of communication or its frequency. We have had formal and informal military relations with China for decades, and now there is even a brand new mil-to-mil hotline connecting the United States to China. So it is an attack on common sense for the Pentagon to claim that “face-to-face dialogue in Beijing and in Washington will go a long way to clearing up any misunderstanding about this incident.” The problem is not that we don’t talk to the Chinese enough or that we misunderstand them. It is that they are hostile.
The hostile Chinese? David Axe doesn't appear to think so:
To be clear, Beijing and Washington are not enemies, Robert Kaplan stressed in a recent article for Foreign Affairs. Rather, China is a "legitimate peer competitor" of the United States. The task of the U.S. Navy will therefore be to quietly leverage the sea power of its closest allies -- India in the Indian Ocean and Japan in the western Pacific -- to set limits on China's expansion.
One would be hard-pressed to deny China as a "legitimate peer competitor," yet I would argue that some of this legitimacy is lost when harassment is adopted as a strategic tactic. There is nothing wrong with a state wanting to mark its territory; it is the fashion by which it goes about doing so, however, that sets the tone. As the old adage goes, actions speak louder than words.