Sino-African relations during the T'ang Dynasty (618-907 A.D.)

I've recently been working on a chapter which is to be included in a great forthcoming book edited by Emma Mawdsley and Gerard McCann on contemporary Indian-African relations. The chapter examines in a comparative perspective Chinese and Indian entrepreneurs in the East African economies, ultimately arguing that the competitive advantages enjoyed by the Chinese enable them to out-compete their Indian-origin and African counterparts.

In conducting research for the piece, I stumbled across a fascinating source on Sino-African relations which - finally and thankfully - puts a lid on any claims of novelty surrounding present bilateral relations, tracing interactions between Chinese and African merchants back in time across the centuries. The source is the Yu-yang-tsa-tu written by Tuan Ch'eng-shih during the T'ang Dynasty (618-907 A.D). The Yu-yang-tsa-tu is a compendium of general knowledge written about the land of 'Po-pa-li,' i.e. present day Somalia, and it describes from a Chinese perspective daily life in Po-pa-li and, perhaps most curiously, the blood oaths taken between Chinese and Somali traders prior to engaging in the barter of goods. Those were the days.

Excerpts from the book may be found in Robert Collin's East African History v. 2 (African History in Documents), snippets of which are available through Google books. The work is, above all else, a fascinating insight into not only (very) early-day Somalia, but also early Chinese perceptions of Africa - some of which remain unaltered today.

Noteworthy...

US State Department's Africa Bureau receives less than rave reviews in a recent report from State's Office of the Inspector General

Today marks the 50th anniversary of the release of Miles Davis' Kind of Blue - the best selling jazz album of all time. Fred Kaplan examines the genius behind music (and see here for a great Legacy Recordings video tribute to the album - and Davis)

A recent International Crisis Group report briefing warns of increasing insecurity and political tension in Somalia's Puntland - a semi-autonomous region in north-eastern Somalia once touted as a success of the 'building blocks' approach to reestablishing national stability, and viewed as one of the most prosperous parts of the country

Is China revamping its climate change policy? The FT seems to think so...

From bad to worse in Somalia

There is sufficient reason to believe that things in Somalia are going south. Wayyyy south. Mere months after the inauguration of the Transitional Federal Government, lead by moderate Islamist President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, the opposition party (and by 'opposition party' I mean noted terrorist group) al-Shabab is doing everything in its power to bring the country to the ground. And is doing a pretty good job, at that:

After a week of heavy mortar and rocket attacks that have left at least 135 people dead and sent tens of thousands fleeing, the insurgents have moved to within a half-mile of the hilltop presidential palace in Mogadishu, the Somali capital, which is being guarded by African Union peacekeepers with tanks and armored vehicles.

The Islamists, reportedly joined by hundreds of foreign fighters, didn't move on the palace Friday and almost certainly would lose a ground confrontation with the better-armed, 4,300-man peacekeeping force. Still, Aweys, a veteran hard-liner who US officials charge is linked to Al Qaeda, vowed to topple the government and institute "the Islamic state of Somalia."

This is among the worst violence Mogadishu has seen this year, and what's more, it appears that there is little that outside forces can do about it save but sit and watch. Any peacekeeping mission will likely end in disaster,  tantamount to or perhaps even surpassing that caused by the African Union's mission to the country. And, as Elizabeth Dickinson aptly notes, throwing money at the problem won't fix it either; in fact, it may well exacerbate it.

With little prospect for intervention or monetary aid, the international community is seemingly at a loss. This is horrible news for both Somalia and Western interests alike (obviously more so for the former than the latter). I'd venture to guess that life under a militant Islamist regime is not all that rosy, nor is its existence particularly promising for the ongoing war on terror. Hopefully the current state of affairs will not end in such an arrangement, though the present outlook is quite grim. Quite grim, indeed.

Update: Oh! I forgot to mention another somewhat disparaging factor implicated in all of this: the UNDP seems to think that Somalia's plight makes for a brilliant comic strip. A comic strip!! The alleged intent is "educational," but it all sounds a bit demeaning to me....

On dealing with pirates

In an interesting letter to Barack Obama on the subject of Somalia, Senator Russ Feingold writes the following:

As you know, piracy off the coast of Somalia is a symptom of the state collapse and instability on land; thus, any military actions we take will only be stopgap measures.  In recent Congressional testimony, Director of National Intelligence Blair and Defense Intelligence Agency Director Army Lt. General Michael Maples cited lawlessness and economic problems on land for the rise in piracy at sea.  The ultimate solution to the problem of piracy, then, is the establishment of a functional government that can enforce the rule of law.  During the rule of the Council of Islamic Courts in 2006, there was a notable decline in piracy that can be attributed, in large part, to the rise of a central authority in southern Somalia. Without replicating the repressive rule of the Courts, we must keep in mind that establishing a central governing structure in Somalia is critical to resolving, not just stopping, the problem of piracy.

Feingold proposes closer U.S. cooperation with the Somali government to "help establish security and functional, inclusive governance within the country." At first glance this seems like the clear way forward. Given that a large portion of pirates are impoverished individuals attempting to make a livelihood for themselves in the absence of other options, an internal solution to the problem (i.e. establishing governance and subsequently creating opportunity) appears the right one. 

Yet while this nation-building route may be the most sensible of options, it does raise two questions. First, should the United States engage in yet another nation-building mission in the Islamic world? Recall that Somalia is in large measure (informally) controlled by al-Shabab, an extreme al-Qaeda aligned terrorist group that has been active in Somalia since 2006. Despite America's benevolent intentions, I remain highly skeptical that any sort of state-building activity would be welcomed, especially given America's recent track record (and reputation) in the Islamic world. And given, too, that Somalia is a sovereign nation. Arguably this would radicalize the pirates just as much as would the second option: military action.

The second option (and second question) is indeed that of air strikes on pirate land bases, an option currently being debated by the U.S. government. While I hesitate to believe that such action would do much to ameliorate the piracy problem in the long term, and would inevitably mar the vision of a peaceful, all-loving America which the Obama administration seems intent on creating, some argue that it may be the appropriate response to what are, in fact, acts of terror. Indeed, the fundamental question implicit in this option is that of what label we designate to pirates: are they merely (helpless) criminals (or a 'better class of criminal' as my colleague Jon Santiago comically muses), or are they terrorists? Hostis humani generis? 

Unfortunately, the recent string of events appears to point to the latter. Mortars were fired on upon a plane carrying U.S. Congressman Donald Payne as it took off from Mogadishu airport on Monday (al-Shabab has claimed responsibility for the act). Pirates attempted an attack on a second U.S. vessel today, and have hijacked four more ships since the rescue of Captain Richard Phillips. Where before I was willing to pass off acts of piracy as acts of desperate individuals attempting to sustain a livelihood, such events seem to suggest something quite different - no less so given the pirates' threats of defiant, bloody revenge.

The question of how to solve the piracy problem is fantastically complex, and I don't claim to have much in the way of a solution. There is much to consider and, as it stands, America appears caught between a rock and a hard place. Arrrghhh matey, indeed.

Noteworthy….

There is so much that I want to say today, but alas I woke up running, as it were, and am fantastically behind in all that I'm meant to accomplish. Nevertheless, I do want to bring several things to your attention:

China today released a Human Rights Plan, a lengthy document promising to Chinese citizens a myriad of civil liberties they have thus far been denied. The full text of the plan (in English) may be found here.

The U.S. is considering attacking Somali pirates' land bases. I'm not quite sure the U.S. knows what it's getting itself into should this go ahead. A horrible idea, if you ask me (more on this in upcoming posts!)

Arguably one of the better summaries of all that is right, and all that is wrong, with Dambisa Moyo's controversial book, Dead Aid.

Money as art: billboards, flyers and posters made from worthless Zimbabwean dollars (you can view the images here)

Let's chat Somalia again, shall we?

In mid-December I posted on the then quickly collapsing state of affairs in Somalia, hypothesizing that al-Shabab would quickly move in to assert its control (quick refresher: al-Shabab is an extreme al-Qaeda aligned terrorist group that has been active in Somalia since 2006). Sure enough, the Shabab captured Mogadishu on Monday and have since declared the ascendancy of Islamic Law, threatening punishment on anyone who acts in opposition to it. The country now hangs in a period of uncertainty (sadly nothing new for this Horn of Africa country) until its new president is sworn in. A number of individuals have announced their candidacy for the post, including the Islamist Sheikh Sharif Ahmed. 

Some analysts remain optimistic about Somalia's future (bless them), reasoning that if al-Shabab is anything like other rebel groups, it will likely fracture from within before it manages to do any serious damage to the country. Drawing on the experiences of other African Islamic states, however, I remain huuugely skeptical. Al-Shabab may be a rebel group, but they are really, really good at what they do. Lucky for them, not so much for the rest of us.

Promises of governance (in whatever form...) have also done little to bring to a halt Somali pirates, who today seized a German tanker off the coast of Somalia. Japan is now trying its hand at tackling the pirates (I wonder if we might see a Japan vs. China pirate showdown... kidding, kidding), adding to what are already largely international efforts aimed at averting this growing threat. 

Curiously, under his presidency, George W. Bush pressed for a larger international force in Somalia, but was met with little support. It would seem that *gasp!* he may have been right. Indeed, of all the African challenges Obama now faces, I'd place Somalia's turmoils at top of the list. We need to keep our eyes on this one. 

A theory on China and pirates

A most interesting piece by Bright Simons in the Asia Times suggests China's recent naval dispatch to the Gulf of Aden is part of a broader Chinese strategy of "localized strategic combat," wherein isolated contentions over given resources, interests, and geo-political positions serve to advance Chinese global influence. This is especially true in the Horn of Africa, a key strategic outpost, particularly in light of its proximity to, and strategic ties with, key Middle Eastern (oil) states:

In June of last year, police in the breakaway region of Somaliland in Northern Somalia made an arrest that suggests strongly that Chinese operatives of uncertain affiliation were working with Yemenis in shadowy activities that may involve espionage-related gun-running. 

There have similarly been reports of a Chinese presence through Eritrean proxies in peace-building operations in the Eastern Sudan with the obvious aim of securing the 1,500-kilometer oil pipe that feeds Sudan's oil through the Red Sea into Chinese chimneys in Guangdong. (Contrast this with the US's persistent condemnation of Eritrean elements of fueling the Islamist insurrection in Somalia, and its dismissive attitude towards engagement with the Asmara elite.) 

Unconfirmed reports also suggest a major expansion of Chinese installations in another Red Sea state, Djibouti, even as tensions between the latter and brigand elements in Somalia rise. 

Incidents of this sort are even more interesting because, for several years now, PLA-dominated "multinationals" like Norinco and the Poly Group have been sharpening the capacity of Beijing to match the flair the West once showed in intermixing commerce, investment, arms trading and influence-peddling to minimize the scope for nationalist repercussions (the Horn of Africa receives roughly 70% of China's direct investment into Africa). 

In the context of such activities, the piece proceeds to suggest that the recent naval dispatch is a component of this broader strategic effort at international expansionism - "expansionism by a thousand strides," if you will:

When all is said, it is far from difficult to lay out the pieces in the Gulf of Aden with respect to a "strategic combat" configuration. 

China considers the Middle East treacherous and apparently prefers to undertake its penetration by circumnavigation, and Africa offers favorable currents for its choice of trajectory, which is not to say that the continent in and of itself is not a destination.

Many (including myself) frequently fail to analyze China through such a militaristic, strategic lens. Most often, Beijing's human rights record and its economic expansion (and recent market volatility) steal the spotlight in analyses. Yet inasmuch as these factors characterize the CCP's agenda, it must be recalled that they remain components of a broader international scheme. It was not too long ago that the Chinese Navy set out to acquire an aircraft carrier, for instance. Chinese investors likewise  continue to break into an increasing number of developed markets.

If China is to continue its quest for international influence (and it will), it will likely be accomplished through precisely the sort of  "localized strategic combat" Simons outlines. Western governments seeking to parry such expansionism are thus left with the daunting task of figuring out exactly how. (Hint: Military build-up is not the answer. At least not in the short-term).

Who wants to save Somalia?

Somalia's soldiers and police are deserting at an unprecedented rate.  The UN has been unable to put together a multinational military force to stabilize the country. The AU is pulling out, and any sort of U.S./EU "land invasion" to combat piracy appears highly unlikely (indeed now more than ever). So what's to become of this east African state? 

Unfortunately, I find myself agreeing with Ethan Zuckerman who writes:

My money’s on al-Shabab controlling Mogadishu within weeks, and moving to stabilize the country under Sharia law. This is likely to be less pleasant than the control the UIC imposed, but will likely have the effect of reducing piracy and, perhaps, allowing commerce to resume. In the medium term, it’s likely to threaten Ethiopia and perhaps Kenya in a serious way, and to provide safe haven for Islamic extremists. And in the long term, it’s likely to become a major security issue for the Obama administration, possibly rising to the level where it’s discussed by folks other than Africa policy wonks.

Al-Shabab is an extreme, intolerant, Al-Qaeda aligned Islamist insurgency group that has been active in Somalia since 2006. In 2008 it was classified as an official terrorist group by the U.S. State Department. In short, it's exactly the kind of 'governance' Somalia and its neighbors don't need. So.... who else wants to save Somalia? 

Call for governance in Somalia straight from the mouths of pirates.... well, sort of

"I started to hijack these fishing boats in 1998. I did not have any special training but was not afraid. For our first captured ship we got $300,000. With the money we bought AK-47s and small speedboats. I don't know exactly how many ships I have captured since then but I think it is about 60. Sometimes when we are going to hijack a ship we face rough winds, and some of us get sick and some die.

We give priority to ships from Europe because we get bigger ransoms. To get their attention we shoot near the ship. If it does not stop we use a rope ladder to get on board. We count the crew and find out their nationalities. After checking the cargo we ask the captain to phone the owner and say that have seized the ship and will keep it until the ransom is paid.

Our community thinks we are pirates getting illegal money. But we consider ourselves heroes running away from poverty. We don't see the hijacking as a criminal act but as a road tax because we have no central government to control our sea.

With foreign warships now on patrol we have difficulties. But we are getting new boats and weapons. We will not stop until we have a central government that can control our sea."

A Somali pirate, interviewed by Xan Rice of The Guardian. [HT: Africa Works].

Pirrrrates... and what to do about them

Somali pirates have been all over the news lately: they hijacked an oil tanker off the coast of Kenya and steered it to the Somali port city, Eyl. The Saudi Arabian vessel - the Sirus Star - is the largest ever raided at sea. According to the FT, apart from the 25 sailors taken hostages, the vessel carried 2m barrels of oil worth about $100m, and accounting for one-quarter of Saudi daily output. Very impressive stuff, indeed. 

Yet this recent hijacking is not an isolated incident. There have been 95 attacks by Somali pirates on vessels this year alone (!), with 39 ships captured and 800 crew held. Events such as this are beginning to raise heightened concern among already worried international governments - many of whom rely on the Gulf of Aden for transport of key exports. In an attempt to combat such piracy, NATO has begun considering significantly extending its anti-piracy mission - Allied Provider - off Somalia.  Members of the international community from the left and right have likewise taken to weighing their options. The UK-based think tank, Chathahm House, has put out a paper examining several such options. You can find this paper here. 

Having had a bit of time to think about much of this, though, I've come to side with those who argue that the culprit of the problem - and the solution - is governance. While international law may take us so far in regulating the problem, lawyers are discovering that it might not take us as far as we would like. And even if it did, how do you impose law upon a lawless people? Somalia has not had a functioning government since 1991, and remains divided between several warring factions. Given the circumstances, it should come as no surprise that the country's people often resort to desperate acts to sustain themselves. Indeed, the majority of these pirates are Somali fisherman living on less than $1 a day; when given the opportunity to acquire a potential $25million (or thereabouts) they take their chances. I'm not sure I wouldn't, too.

So what's the solution to Somali piracy? Well, governance. Opportunities. Alternatives. How do we go about actualizing it? The international community has been trying to figure this one out for over a decade. A valuable first step is to begin paying attention to a country that has been neglected - by its own people and the international community. Every cloud has a silver lining: maybe with this hijacking will come some serious attempts at reform.

The resurgence of decentralization

Decentralization has been a buzz word in the development world for quite a while, as it is believed that local governments are more accountable to their constituents than are centralized governments. This logic seems to be making a resurgence in Somalia, where Somali intellectuals and Western academics are pushing for a form of government that might be better suited to Somalia's fluid, fragmented and decentralized society: rebuilding Somalia from the bottom-up.

It is called the building-block approach. The first blocks would be small governments at the lowest levels, in villages and towns. These would be stacked to form district and regional governments. The last step would be uniting the regional governments in a loose national federation that controlled, say, currency and the pirate-infested shoreline, but did not sideline local leaders.

While decentralization has certainly been proven effective in various African locales, it has likewise heralded in problems of resource deficiency, wasted resources and policy overlap. While decentralization may solve some of Somalia's problems, it may equally exacerbate others.